Sunday, June 05, 2011

Prof Flanagan on a Stable Tory Coalition

Our lefty friends and ignorant child will have to endure years of Tory government.

The 2011 federal election saw the emergence of a majority Conservative electoral coalition that may dominate Canadian politics for years to come.

When he re-entered electoral politics in 2002, Stephen Harper wanted to reconstitute Brian Mulroney's coalition of western populists, traditional Tories and francophone nationalists; but when the francophone pillar of the coalition proved unstable, he was able to replace francophones with sizable elements of Canada's ethnic communities. The resulting coalition conforms with the game-theoretic ideal of a minimum connected winning coalition and, as such, should be internally stable and difficult for opponents to break up.

In May 1996, David Frum and Ezra Levant organized the Winds of Change conference in Calgary to discuss a possible unification of the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties. The most important thing that came out of the meeting was a statement by Harper of how a conservative party could regain power in Canada. Harper's speech turned into a road map that he followed faithfully once he became leader of the Canadian Alliance; and, with one important modification, it led to the Conservative parliamentary majority elected on May 2, 2011.

The basic idea that Harper laid out at the Winds of Change conference was to reconstitute Mulroney's electoral coalition, which Harper analyzed in tripartite terms: populists in Western Canada and rural Ontario (who then supported the Reform party); traditional Tories in Ontario and Atlantic Canada (who were still voting PC); and francophone nationalists in Quebec (who were then voting for the Bloc Quebecois).


been around the block said...

That Stephen Harper's one smart cookie!

And patient.

And hard-working.

And, now he's the Prime Ministerial leader of a strong, stable, national, majority, Canadian government!

Bravo and God bless you, Mr. Prime Minister! Canada's in good hands for at least the next four years and, for that, many millions of Canadians are grateful.

Anonymous said...

A lot of people that support political parties, engage in the process and actually go out to vote are conservative. The proof is in the pudding of recent conservative success. The media wants pie instead. (real conservative)

I Support Lord Black