An interesting article by Chantal Hebert. She thinks the dippers have established a beachhead in Quebec. It seems likely that the dippers will be the natural HM Loyal Opposition. I think she is also right that many dipper seats will be up for grabs the next time around in Quebec. The grits and the dippers will split votes which should be good for Tory prospects. I actually believe we will see several byelections in Quebec along the way. The Tories are good at winning byelections.
That is not to say that the NDP will necessarily be able to repeat Monday’s stunning Quebec feat in four years’ time.
The next election will likely bring a correction of sorts.
The Liberals usually alternate between francophone and anglophone leaders.
Under a francophone leader, they might become more competitive and regain some of their traditional Quebec clientele.
But both the NDP’s track record and the province’s past voting patterns suggest that the New Democrat presence in Quebec is not going to be a mere transient phenomenon.
Should the Liberals and the NDP head into the next election as separate parties, Quebec is more likely to become the scene of the vote-splitting that facilitated a Conservative majority in Ontario and Atlantic Canada last Monday than to turn its back entirely on the New Democrats