Friday, March 25, 2011

Even wk is afraid

I dislike and don't particularly trust catsmeat, but it is interesting to read this article. Of course we shouldn't be overconfident. This will be a nasty fight to the end, but it is good to have a demoralized opposition.

Nineteen Eighty-Four wasn’t just the title of a good book by George Orwell.

It’s also a useful reminder of what may be about to happen to the Liberals and NDP in the coming election campaign.

You remember: Sept. 4, 1984, and Brian Mulroney sweeps to a massive parliamentary majority. The once-great Liberal Party — the Natural Governing Party, no less — is reduced to a paltry 40 seats.

Ever since, Grits like me have regarded that year, that number, with a unique combination of fear and awe. And, every so often, we wonder, could history repeat itself?

Well, apparently, it could. If Ipsos’ Thursday night bombshell is to be believed, 1984 is happening all over again.

Ipsos has long been regarded as the gold standard in the Canadian polling industry. My political consulting firm uses them and so do plenty of others, including past Liberal and Tory governments. So the numbers found in its latest survey of public opinion can’t be dismissed. Instead, nervous Grits could perhaps regard the numbers as they would, say, the words carved on the federal Liberal Party’s tombstone.

Conservatives, up to 43%. Liberals, down to 24%. NDP, unchanged at 16%.

And if you just look at voting preferences of those absolutely certain to trek to polling stations, according to Ipsos, the Cons go up to 45%, and the Grits slide to 23%.

3 comments:

Louise said...

Oh, that is good news, but a lot can happen during an election campaign.

fernstalbert said...

What is driving election fever? Not one of my family, friends or aquaintances are pitching for an election. The general opinion is that its a waste of money - there is no burning issue that requires the dissolving of parliament. Its a pitiful ego moment - a shared delusion of Ignatieff and Layton. The opposition leaders needs a national grandstand to prove relevance. This is about behind the scenes manoeuvering of potential leadership candidates and the desperate hope that an election will quiet the usurpers. Cheers.

Frances said...

Why, oh why, does the opposition want an election campaign during tax season? Am waiting for the Tory ads pointing out all the tax measures they have put in which benefit the average Canadians, and the new ones in the budget.

I Support Lord Black