Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Tory Support in those polls

John Ivison has an interesting take that should make iffy scared ( unless he really does want to return to Harvard).

The Ipsos poll suggests the Conservatives are on the cusp of a majority, if they win a high percentage of close races. One recent survey by Bryan Breguet, who runs the electoral forecasting site Too Close to Call, suggested that the Conservatives have become increasingly efficient at converting close races (where the winner wins by less than 5%) in the past three elections. Of 33 close races in the 2006 election, the Tories won or held 28 of them in 2008. The Liberals were 10 for 44.

As Mr. Breguet pointed out: “The Conservatives lost 14 ridings by a margin of less than 5% in 2008. With a good targeting, the party won’t even need to increase its level of support substantially to win a majority.”

Despite the recent bump in the polls, one suspects the the message from the Conservatives will remain unchanged — no need for an election, continue governing, focus on the economy. The reasons are pretty clear — they are extremely vulnerable to the Bloc Qu├ębecois in Quebec, where the Quebec City arena issue has not gone well for them. At the same time, any losses in Quebec will likely be compensated for by gains in Ontario at the expense of the Grits. Stephen Harper will continue to claim he wants peace, while preparing for war.

None of this is good news for the Liberals, many of whom must now be questioning the wisdom of Mr. Ignatieff’s strategy of charging headlong toward the Conservative guns. For a number of Liberal MPs, the Doomsday Clock may just have moved one minute closer to midnight.

No comments:

I Support Lord Black