Sunday, January 02, 2011

No Election soon?

Angelo Persichilli also thinks there won't be an election any time soon. I disagree with him on Tory readiness for the polls, but the rest of his reasoning is sound. I suspect Tory strategists actually do want a spring election, but I am not sure how will they manage it, unless iffy wants to leave as grit leader and not resign, as some are saying. My friend Ezra disagrees with me. So do some of my friends who are Tory candidates.


Using logic to predict political events for the next 12 months would be a waste of time, since logic has been absent from Canadian politics for quite a while. So trying to answer the most-asked question about the current political scene — namely, when we’ll be going to the polls — is not just hard, it’s logically impossible.

For political leaders, deciding to go to the polls in this environment is like wanting to play Lotto 6/49 without any jackpot. That’s because Canadian voters have removed the jackpot — a majority government — from the prize list. The best that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper can hope for is another minority, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s best hope is to retain his role as leader of the opposition.

The problem with the Conservatives, despite their good work on the economy and other issues, is that they are not willing to deviate from an electoral message that is wrapped around their fixation with law and order. By doing this, they preach to the converted and ignore the potential voters they need to win a majority.

The clearest evidence of this problem was seen in Vaughan where, despite the presence of a star candidate like Julian Fantino, they were not able to get one more vote than in the previous election and failed to win the support of some of the more than 10,000 disgruntled Liberals who stayed home.

For the Liberals, the diagnosis is even simpler — they are divided and don’t have a leader with enough credibility to enforce unity and eliminate dissenters. The way it has worked in the Liberal party lately is that it’s the leader who gets kicked out if he raises his voice. This means that even if the diagnosis is easy, the prognosis is unknown...

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

“they were not able to get one more vote than in the previous election and failed to win the support of some of the more than 10,000 disgruntled Liberals who stayed home.”

But that is how change happens. Italian ethnics had voted Liberal there forever. Now an Italian Fantino comes along who made it palatable not to vote Liberal. But staying home is just stage one of change; they stay home because they cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative.

The same thing happened all over the GTA in the last election. Liberals could not vote for Dion but that didn’t mean they could vote for Harper. So they stayed home.

But I don’t get his comment about Conservatives “are not willing to deviate from an electoral message that is wrapped around their fixation with law and order.” I would argue the problem is that there is no “electoral Message”. And there probably won’t be until the big Provinces decide what their “electoral message” is. Ottawa needs to shrink. That has to become the message or we’ll crack up. The Provinces simply do not have enough money to run their programs and Ottawa can no longer pretend it’s the piggy bank.

No federal election until 2012.

nomdeblog

Sean M said...

There will be an election this year, this spring. Iggo has already stated that he wants an election, and the media have gone even more hyper partisan than usual. The "Liberals" have sent out the word to their media activists and agents to sell an election, and the media polls follow, along with a ramping up of the negative rhetoric against the Conservatives. The co-ordinated efforts of the "Liberals" and their media whores is obvious. Look for a tsunami of negative "fear and smear" against the Conservative Government from the media on behalf of the "Liberals". The co-ordinated "Liberal", media agenda will be to stop PM Harper from gaining a majority and the media will sink to new all time lows to achieve this end.

I Support Lord Black