Angelo Persichilli also thinks there won't be an election any time soon. I disagree with him on Tory readiness for the polls, but the rest of his reasoning is sound. I suspect Tory strategists actually do want a spring election, but I am not sure how will they manage it, unless iffy wants to leave as grit leader and not resign, as some are saying. My friend Ezra disagrees with me. So do some of my friends who are Tory candidates.
Using logic to predict political events for the next 12 months would be a waste of time, since logic has been absent from Canadian politics for quite a while. So trying to answer the most-asked question about the current political scene — namely, when we’ll be going to the polls — is not just hard, it’s logically impossible.
For political leaders, deciding to go to the polls in this environment is like wanting to play Lotto 6/49 without any jackpot. That’s because Canadian voters have removed the jackpot — a majority government — from the prize list. The best that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper can hope for is another minority, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s best hope is to retain his role as leader of the opposition.
The problem with the Conservatives, despite their good work on the economy and other issues, is that they are not willing to deviate from an electoral message that is wrapped around their fixation with law and order. By doing this, they preach to the converted and ignore the potential voters they need to win a majority.
The clearest evidence of this problem was seen in Vaughan where, despite the presence of a star candidate like Julian Fantino, they were not able to get one more vote than in the previous election and failed to win the support of some of the more than 10,000 disgruntled Liberals who stayed home.
For the Liberals, the diagnosis is even simpler — they are divided and don’t have a leader with enough credibility to enforce unity and eliminate dissenters. The way it has worked in the Liberal party lately is that it’s the leader who gets kicked out if he raises his voice. This means that even if the diagnosis is easy, the prognosis is unknown...