L. Ian Macdonald agrees with some of my points. The grits are being crushed by the Tory Fundraising Juggernaut. The grits are in terrible shape to call an election. I don't see an election before 2012, though an election now might be good strategically for the Tories.
Iggy talks tough, but there's no way he's ready for an election
By L. IAN MACDONALD Canada's Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff speaks during the Liberal caucus Christmas Party in Ottawa December 15, 2010.Photograph by: Blair Gable, ReutersIn a series of year-end interviews, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff signalled he would pull the trigger on an election because of irreconcilable differences with the Conservatives over the budget.
A budget he hasn't seen yet. "We are ready for an election," he boldly declared, "and we think Canadians are ready for an election."
A week before Christmas, an election would be the last thing on Canadians' shopping lists. But Iggy insists that he sensed a groundswell for an election during his summer bus tour. The reason: Canadians don't like Stephen Harper. "Get rid of him," he says they told him.
As for the Liberals, they are so not ready for an election it's not funny.
On the same day Iggy gave his year-enders, the CBC put out an EKOS poll that showed the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by nearly 10 points, 35 to 26 per cent. (The CBC later put out a revised six-point spread, 32 to 26 per cent). Whatever, there are no elections to be won when a party goes into a campaign with 26 per cent -one voter in four.
The Liberals have very little money for an election -they have trouble raising $4 million a year, while the Tories raise $4 million a quarter, from a much larger donor base.
The Liberal leader is a drag on the ticket, with his approval ratings trailing the party's voting intention by at least 2-1 in the polls. Only the renowned Liberal brand is keeping the party competitive. As for the legendary Big Red Machine: It's a myth.
And the Liberal message is very much a work in progress, but consists almost entirely of product differentiation from the Tories.