I am fairly certain of a Tory victory in Vaughan, even though I myself have soem question about our candidate Julian Fantino. I am much less sure of a winter election. I suspect a winter election is not in the cards. If there is one, the grits should be very scared. Their fundraising numbers are pathetic and they would probably have to rent the same bus to get iffy agacross Canada. I think it is mor likely we will see grit cooperation with HM Government, even if it is not with much enthusiaism. I don't see an election before the fall of 2011. The grits can no longer block HM Government in the senate and they are broke. They will be sitting on their hands a lot and iffy will probably make more mtrips to harvard to keep in touch for his next job.
Federal Liberals have much more to worry about this weekend than the looming by-election loss of yet another supposedly “safe” seat. A sorry result in Vaughan may well trigger a winter campaign fought to Liberal disadvantage on Conservative terms.
Still hoping for the by-election best, Liberal are preparing for the worst. Unless loyalists shock organizers by flooding polling stations, former OPP Commissioner Julian Fantino will win in a walk, one widely expected to lead him straight into the Conservative cabinet.
Losing a riding Liberals held for 22 years — albeit by leaning heavily on Maurizio Bevilacqua’s personal popularity — would wave warning flags any time. Losing Vaughan now to Stephen Harper would be a jarring wake-up call for Michael Ignatieff